Booking Holdings Slumps 16% YTD, Forward P/E Falls to 16.8x

EXPEEXPE

Booking Holdings shares have fallen 16% year-to-date into the $180 range despite processing $186 billion in gross bookings and generating $26.9 billion in revenue. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 16.8x versus its five-year median of 31.6x, underscoring a significant valuation discount given 20% net margins and AI-driven cost savings.

1. Share Performance and Valuation Reset

Shares slipped 16% year-to-date into the $180 range after investors repriced the stock for lower growth expectations. Booking now trades at a forward P/E of 16.8x versus its five-year median of 31.6x, creating a valuation gap relative to peers.

2. Revenue Growth and Projections

Full-year 2025 revenue reached $26.9 billion, up 13% year-over-year, while analysts forecast 9–11% growth in 2026. Despite handling $186 billion in gross bookings, concerns over slowing growth and Italy’s antitrust probe pressured the share price.

3. AI Efficiency Play

Deploying generative AI has driven a 10% rise in bookings alongside falling customer service costs in Q4 2025. Direct bookings now exceed 50% under the Connected Trip strategy, enhancing unit economics and supporting margin expansion.

4. Upcoming Q1 Earnings and Transformation

Investors will look to the April 28 Q1 report for updates on the $550 million Transformation Program and progress on navigating European regulatory challenges. Booking holds over $21 billion in buyback authorization, which may accelerate shareholder returns if cost savings materialize.

Sources

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