BP Projects $25–27B Net Debt with Exceptional Q1 Trading as Brent Hits $81
BP expects first-quarter 2026 earnings to benefit from exceptional oil trading performance and higher commodity prices, with Brent crude averaging $81.13 per barrel versus $63.73 in Q4. The group predicts net debt will rise to $25–27 billion (from $22.2 billion) due to a $4–7 billion working capital build.
1. Trading Performance Turnaround
BP’s oil trading arm delivered exceptional results in the first quarter, reversing a weak Q4 performance and driving a substantial uplift in earnings expectations through active positions on market volatility.
2. Commodity Price Benefits
Brent crude averaged $81.13 per barrel in Q1, up from $63.73 in Q4, while U.S. natural gas prices rose materially, supporting stronger refining margins and improved downstream performance due to reduced turnaround activity.
3. Working Capital and Net Debt Build
Net debt is projected to rise to $25–27 billion from $22.2 billion at year-end, primarily reflecting a $4–7 billion build in working capital tied to elevated commodity prices rather than underlying operational weakness.
4. Operational Outlook and Production
Upstream output is forecast at around 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with oil down slightly, gas and low-carbon energy up modestly, while customer-facing volumes are expected to dip seasonally, partly offset by stronger midstream activity.