Brazil lowers trade surplus outlook despite strong September
EWZ•Brazil cut its 2026 trade surplus forecast to $84.4 billion from $90 billion, even as September’s surplus reached $7.7 billion, above economists’ $7.2 billion expectation.
1. Lower surplus forecast
Brazil’s government cut its forecast for this year’s trade surplus by more than $5 billion, citing weaker-than-expected export growth. It now expects exports of $382.5 billion and imports of $298.1 billion, down from previous forecasts of $394.4 billion and $304.4 billion, respectively.
2. September trade balance
Brazil posted a $7.7 billion trade surplus in September, up 146.4% from a year earlier and above economists’ $7.2 billion expectation. If realized, this year’s surplus would be 24% higher than in 2025.
3. Export drivers
Year-to-date export growth has been driven by shipments of soybeans, crude oil, copper ore, beef and fuels. Brazil, a net oil exporter, has also benefited from higher crude prices following the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran.
