Oil prices stable as market weighs supply risks, rising Middle East exports
USO•Brent was down 0.3% at $100.03 a barrel and U.S. WTI rose 0.2% to $89.59 as traders weighed rising Middle East exports, supply risks and a planned G7 release of 100 million barrels of emergency fuel and crude.
1. Prices and exports
Oil prices were steady after recovering earlier losses. Vitol’s CEO said around 12 million barrels per day of crude and 2 million bpd of refined products had left the Middle East on tankers in the prior seven to 10 days. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline had reached throughput of 5.8 million barrels as of Tuesday morning, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said.
2. Supply risks persist
Prices were supported by concerns about further Middle East supply disruptions. Saudi Arabia’s aviation authority said attacks on airports in Jazan and Najran on Monday evening injured three people and caused limited damage. The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, but did not specify the volumes of each fuel or which countries would participate.
3. Outlook and inventories
The EIA projected global petroleum production would fall from 106.3 million bpd in 2025 to 101.1 million bpd in 2026, while oil demand would decline from 104.4 million to 102.4 million bpd. It projected production and consumption would rise to record highs of 109.6 million and 104.6 million bpd, respectively, in 2027. Analysts estimated U.S. crude stocks rose by 1.8 million barrels in the week ended October 2.
