February’s nonfarm payrolls fell short by 92,000 jobs and core PCE inflation remained at 3.0%, raising concerns that inflationary pressures could persist even as growth slows. Market participants are recalibrating rate-cut expectations from June to July, reinforcing bullish bets on energy as inflation resilience supports higher-for-longer policy.

A record-breaking release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has commenced, supplying volumes equivalent to nearly half of emergency stocks. This unprecedented drawdown aims to alleviate rising fuel costs but is also tightening longer-term reserve buffers, prompting traders to reassess supply risk premiums.

Escalating conflict in the Middle East, coupled with sanctions dynamics in Iran, is exacerbating concerns over global oil flows. Traders are evaluating the potential for sustained disruptions as geopolitical fallout from war and strained trade orders threatens to constrain Brent availability.

Brazil’s government has scrapped federal diesel taxes and imposed a temporary levy on oil exports to shield domestic fuel prices from global swings. At the same time, discussions on Jones Act waivers could unlock new shipping routes for U.S. oil and agricultural exports, influencing short-term tanker demand.