Broadcom Faces 8% YTD Drop Despite $2.02 EPS Forecast and $21–22 B Q2 Guidance
Broadcom shares have fallen over 8% year to date despite expectations of first-quarter adjusted EPS of about $2.02 (up from $1.60) and revenue of roughly $19.2 billion (up from $14.92 billion). JPMorgan forecasts AI-driven revenue above $9 billion this quarter with potential $10–11 billion and suggests Q2 guidance of $21–22 billion versus $20.5 billion consensus.
1. Share Performance and Year-to-Date Underperformance
Broadcom shares have declined over 8% year to date, underperforming the Nasdaq Composite as investors rotate away from mega-cap technology due to sustainability concerns around AI infrastructure spending.
2. First-Quarter Forecast Highlights
Wall Street anticipates adjusted EPS of $2.02 for fiscal Q1, up from $1.60 a year earlier, with revenue projected at $19.2 billion versus $14.92 billion in the prior-year period.
3. AI Segment Growth and Analyst Projections
JPMorgan projects AI-driven revenue exceeding $9 billion this quarter, potentially rising to $10–11 billion, fueled by demand for TPU 3 nm ASICs, Tomahawk 5 and early Tomahawk 6 switching chips, and signals of production capacity constraints.
4. Q2 Guidance and Long-Term Outlook
Analysts expect Q2 revenue guidance of $21–22 billion against a $20.5 billion consensus, with forecasts of over $65 billion in AI revenue in fiscal 2026 and more than $120 billion in fiscal 2027 as new products ramp.