Broadcom Forecasts $19.1B Q1 Revenue Up 28% but Margins Slip

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Broadcom’s Q4 fiscal 2025 revenue rose 28% to $18.02 billion, driven by a 74% jump in AI chip sales, yet shares plunged 14.1% after guidance warned of a 100 bp gross-margin decline. Broadcom forecasts Q1 revenue of $19.1 billion (+28%), semiconductor sales of $12.3 billion (+50%) and AI revenue of $8.2 billion (≈+100% YoY).

1. Broadcom Reports Strong Fiscal Q4 Performance

Broadcom closed fiscal 2025 with revenue of $18.02 billion, a 28 percent increase year-over-year, driven largely by a 74 percent surge in AI semiconductor sales. Adjusted net income reached $9.71 billion (up 37 percent), or $1.95 per share, comfortably above consensus estimates. The semiconductor segment accounted for 61 percent of total revenue with a 68 percent gross margin, while the infrastructure software division delivered a 93 percent margin on 39 percent of revenue. Despite broader markets trading flat in December, Broadcom finished the year with a 50.4 percent total return, outpacing major benchmarks and key peers in the AI chip space.

2. Management Guides for Continued AI-Led Growth in Q1

In its Q1 fiscal 2026 guidance, Broadcom projects revenue of $19.1 billion, reflecting 28 percent year-over-year growth. The semiconductor segment is expected to generate $12.3 billion (up 50 percent), including roughly $8.2 billion of AI semiconductor revenue—nearly doubling from a year ago. Management anticipates a modest 100-basis-point sequential decline in gross margin to approximately 77 percent, attributing the shift to a higher mix of lower-margin custom AI chip sales. Nonetheless, free cash flow is forecast to remain robust, supporting continued dividend growth and share repurchases.

3. Custom ASIC Leadership Underpins Long-Term Upside

Broadcom has emerged as a go-to partner for hyperscale clients seeking custom AI ASIC solutions, leveraging its extensive intellectual property portfolio and secured manufacturing capacity from key foundry partners. Citigroup analysts predict Broadcom’s AI-related revenue could quintuple over two years—from about $20 billion in the past fiscal year to $100 billion by fiscal 2027. With leading designs already powering industry-leading tensor processing units and accelerating workloads away from general-purpose GPUs, Broadcom is positioned to capture an outsized share of the burgeoning custom AI chip market.

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