Burry Questions $3T Valuation as xAI Posts $2.5B Loss; Baron Stays Bullish
SPCX•Investor Michael Burry probed SpaceX’s nearly $3 trillion valuation and explored $100-strike put options priced at $6.75–$25, but chose to stay flat, expecting mid-$200s per share. Academic Yann LeCun flagged xAI’s $2.5 billion operating loss and leadership turnover, while Ron Baron’s $1 billion IPO bet raised his stake above $25 billion.
1. Investor Sentiment
Famed investor Michael Burry challenged SpaceX’s nearly $3 trillion valuation, examining $100-strike puts but remaining flat as he anticipates a mid-$200 share price. Meanwhile, Ron Baron committed $1 billion at the IPO, bringing his overall stake to over $25 billion and signaling a strong long-term conviction.
2. Option Market Indicators
December 2026 $100-strike put options trade near $6.75, June 2027 contracts at around $13 and December 2028 at about $25, reflecting a market-implied drop of over 50% to generate profits. These option prices offer insight into investor risk assessments relative to SpaceX’s current $190–$200 trading range.
3. xAI Challenges
SpaceX’s AI arm, xAI, recorded a $2.5 billion operating loss in the first quarter and has seen several co-founders depart, raising concerns about leadership stability. The segment’s infrastructure investments have turned into cost burdens, with external compute rentals to other firms now needed to offset mounting expenses.
4. ETF Inclusion
Schwab’s U.S. Large-Cap Value ETF added SpaceX at a 0.012% weight, a rare inclusion for a fast-growing space and satellite company in a value-focused fund. The position, while minimal in a $15.83 billion portfolio, underscores SpaceX’s rapid penetration across diverse investment strategies.
