Cameco eyes $0.28 Q4 EPS, 20M lbs output and $525M Westinghouse EBITDA

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Cameco is forecast to earn $0.28 per share in Q4, a 7.7% year-over-year improvement, with consensus unchanged over 60 days. It expects up to 20 million pounds of uranium production in 2025, 32–34 million pounds of deliveries, and $525–580 million of adjusted EBITDA from its Westinghouse stake.

1. Q4 Earnings Preview

Cameco will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 13 before the opening bell. The consensus EPS estimate is $0.28, reflecting a 7.7% increase from the prior-year quarter, with estimates stable over the past 60 days. Over the trailing four quarters, the company recorded two earnings beats and two misses, averaging a negative surprise of 14.8%.

2. Production and Delivery Guidance

Cameco holds 69.8% of the McArthur River mine, 83% of the Key Lake mill and 54.5% of the Cigar Lake mine. It projects a combined 20 million pounds of uranium production in 2025, with deliveries targeted at 32–34 million pounds supported by up to 1 million pounds of market purchases and 9 million pounds of committed purchases.

3. Pricing and Valuation Trends

Uranium realized prices averaged $79.12 per pound in Q4 2025, up 3% year-over-year, despite slightly lower volumes than Q4 2024. Cameco shares have risen 27.6% over six months, trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 20.48 versus the industry average of 1.45.

4. Westinghouse Stake and Financial Position

Cameco expects $525–580 million of adjusted EBITDA from its increased Westinghouse stake tied to the Dukovany reactor project. The company has reduced debt levels, cut operating costs, and ended Q3 with 10 million pounds of uranium inventory ahead of year-end targets.

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