Investors are preparing for Tesla’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report, scheduled for January 28 after the market close, with consensus estimates forecasting adjusted EPS of $0.77–$0.85 and revenue in the mid-to-high-$20 billion range. The company has already disclosed production of 434,358 vehicles and deliveries of 418,227 in Q4, a 16% year-over-year decline from 495,570 units in Q4 2024. Full-year 2025 deliveries totaled 1,636,129 vehicles, down nearly 9% from 2024, marking the second consecutive annual shipment decline. With these figures largely known, the upcoming earnings call will be judged on margin performance and management’s 2026 guidance, which investors see as the most consequential driver of near-term share movement.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk reignited controversy by labeling legacy automakers’ reluctance to license Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software as “crazy,” after reportedly offering terms for a small-scale five-year pilot. In response, several competitors—including Ford and Rivian—have announced in-house autonomous development roadmaps, citing cost savings of up to 30% and tighter integration of sensors, compute and actuators. Ford aims to introduce eyes-off public-road capability by 2028, while Rivian is designing proprietary AI chips for its autonomy platform. This strategic divergence raises questions over Tesla’s ability to monetize FSD through licensing versus defending its technological lead in a fragmented ADAS market.

Tesla continues to accelerate its AI chip development for both vehicle autonomy and the Dojo supercomputer ecosystem. At its recent investor day, the company outlined plans to ramp Dojo training capacity by 50% year-over-year, leveraging a new V2 chip iteration that promises 20% higher throughput per watt. Executives highlighted the dual benefit: enhanced full-self-driving neural network training and future licensing of Dojo compute services to external partners. With global automotive OEMs increasingly sourcing in-house compute solutions, Tesla’s integrated chip-to-software strategy represents a critical differentiator for both vehicle performance and potential non-auto revenue streams.