USO•USO•A proposed pipeline carrying 1 million barrels of crude a day could support Canadian oil output and exports, but experts expect limited permanent job growth. An industry forecast projects oil sands employment will fall 4% by 2035 even as production rises 6%.
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney is backing a pipeline that would carry 1 million barrels of crude oil a day to a Pacific coast port, expanding exports to Asia. Industry forecasts and interviews indicate that higher oil sands output would rely largely on automation and efficiency gains rather than large-scale hiring. Energy Safety Canada projects oil sands employment will decline by 920 jobs, or 4%, by 2035 as production grows 6%; the group said a West Coast pipeline could reverse the job decline but may not add many permanent positions.
No oil sands company has committed the C$100 billion in private investment needed to fill the proposed pipeline and build the carbon capture and storage project Carney has made a condition of federal approval. Oil Sands Alliance head Kendall Dilling said the projects could create thousands of jobs across Canada by the mid-2030s, including temporary construction and supply-chain jobs. Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney said companies prioritized shareholder returns over expansion spending even after oil prices rose and revenue stabilized.
Oil sands capital investment fell from a C$35 billion peak in 2014 to C$14.2 billion in 2024, according to Statistics Canada. Alberta’s oil and gas sector employs 435,000 people, including temporary and part-time workers, 85,000 fewer than in 2014, according to Servus Credit Union data. Carney cautioned against expecting a return to the oil-boom days, saying he would describe the outlook as “sustained growth.”
