Carnival Beats Q4 Estimates by $0.09, Sets FY26 EPS Guidance at $2.48
Carnival reported Q4 EPS of $0.34, beating consensus by $0.09, on $6.33B revenue, with net margin at 10.37% and return on equity of 28.39%. The company set Q1 2026 EPS guidance at $0.17 and FY 2026 at $2.48, while analysts’ average price target stands at $34.39.
1. Valuation and Financial Performance
Carnival Corporation currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.94x, representing a discount to historical multiples even after a 35% rally year to date. The company reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $0.34, beating consensus estimates by $0.09, on revenues of $6.33 billion, up 6.6% year over year. Operating income per berth day reached its highest level in nearly two decades, supporting a net margin of 10.37% and a return on equity of 28.39%. Management has guided first-quarter 2026 earnings per share at $0.17 and full-year EPS at $2.48. The balance sheet shows continued repair, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.96 and liquidity bolstered by record advance bookings, though rising fuel and labor costs pose headwinds to near-term margin expansion.
2. Institutional and Analyst Sentiment
Asset Management One Co. Ltd. increased its stake in Carnival by 5.4% during the third quarter, owning 442,829 shares valued at $12.8 million as of its latest SEC filing. Several other institutions also adjusted positions: Evolution Wealth Management initiated a $25,000 stake, Oliver Lagore Vanvalin added $28,000, Farmers & Merchants Investments boosted its holding by 140.6% to 1,516 shares, Whipplewood Advisors raised its position by 301% to 1,560 shares, and True Wealth Design lifted its stake by 193.4% to 2,030 shares. Institutional investors collectively own 67.19% of the company’s stock. On the sell side, research firms maintain a bullish bias: one analyst rates the shares as Strong Buy, twenty as Buy and nine as Hold, with an average price target of $34.39. Recent reports include reaffirmations of outperform and overweight ratings from Wolfe Research, Barclays, Wells Fargo and Tigress Financial, and a buy rating with a $34.00 target from Goldman Sachs.