Caterpillar’s forward price-to-sales ratio of 4.50 significantly exceeds the 3.47 industry average and peers Komatsu (1.50) and Terex (1.02), resulting in a Value Score of D and signaling a premium valuation relative to competitors. Shares have gained 19.7% over the past three months, underperforming the industry’s 21.2% gain.

In Q4 2025, Caterpillar posted record revenue of $19.1 billion, up 18% year over year, driven by higher volumes across all segments. Backlog rose $11.3 billion sequentially to $51.2 billion, but cost of sales climbed 29% year over year, pushing adjusted operating profit down 9% to $2.66 billion and narrowing the margin to 15.6%; EPS increased 0.4% to $5.16.

For 2026, the company expects revenue growth near the upper end of its 5–7% CAGR target, with adjusted operating margins of 15–19% at roughly $60 billion in revenue; tariffs are projected to impose a $2.6 billion headwind. Scenario analysis suggests margins could expand to 18–22% if revenue hits $72 billion and 21–25% at $100 billion.

Caterpillar aims for 5–7% revenue CAGR through 2030, targeting $6–15 billion in MP&E free cash flow and returning most of it to shareholders via dividends. Key operational goals include tripling autonomous trucks in Resource Industries, boosting service revenues from $24 billion in 2025 to $30 billion by 2030, and leveraging infrastructure spending and the energy transition to drive demand.