CBA sees Australia rental market staying tight as housing backlog persists
Commonwealth Bank analysis says Australia’s rental market may remain tight for several years as a housing backlog persists. The national vacancy rate is about 1.8%, advertised rents are up 5.7% across eight capitals, and vacancy is forecast to reach about 2% by end-2027.
1. Rental market outlook
Commonwealth Bank analysis flagged Australia’s rental market as likely to stay tight for several years because of a persistent housing backlog. The national vacancy rate is about 1.8%, compared with a 2015-2019 average near 2.8%, while advertised rents are up 5.7% across eight capitals. The vacancy rate is forecast to edge up to about 2% by end-2027, still below pre-pandemic norms, with rent growth expected to moderate gradually.
2. Rents and yields
Australian Bureau of Statistics CPI rents rose 3.6% in the 12 months to August 2026 and are seen near 4% during 2027, easing toward 3.5% by end-2028. Tax changes from July 2027 are expected to have a small direct impact on rents, while yields are seen rising from 3.75% to about 4.5% by late 2027.
