CBOT wheat turns higher as war risks cloud market

CHICAGO, Aug. 10 (Reuters) - Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures gained support on Monday as war risks to massive Black Sea wheat exports hung over the market.

• Ukraine has cut its grain export forecast for the 2026/27 July-June season by up to 12% from a previous projection, its agriculture minister told Reuters on Monday, citing Russian attacks on the country's southern Odesa port hub. The lower grain export forecast underscores the damage inflicted by attacks on a country that ships more than 90% of its grain exports through ports. Agricultural products account for the largest share of Ukraine's overall exports.
• Ukraine and Russia have increasingly targeted ships and ports in their 4-1/2-year conflict. However, both are harvesting large crops that could bolster already ample global supplies.
• Russia has in recent weeks attacked Ukrainian Black Sea ports, export terminals and vessels entering and leaving the ports almost daily.
• Russian wheat export prices fell last week under pressure from rising freight rates, while shipments from southern ports slowed significantly amid shipping risks in the Black Sea, according to analysts.
• Ahead of the USDA's monthly crop reports on Wednesday, analysts surveyed by Reuters on average expect the government to trim its estimates of 2026-27 U.S. and global wheat ending stocks as well as U.S. 2026 wheat production.
• As of last Tuesday, 58% of the nation's spring wheat crop was affected by drought, up from 42% a week earlier, making it the most widespread spring wheat drought since 2023, federal data showed.

• CBOT benchmark wheat Wv1 settled 3/4 cent higher at $6.40-1/2 per bushel.
• CBOT September soft red winter wheat WU26 ended 1/2 cent lower at $7.13-1/2 per bushel.