Celestica Upgraded to Buy with New DS6000 Series and $21B Cooling TAM

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Analyst upgrades Celestica to Buy ahead of Q4 earnings, citing accelerating revenue growth driven by hyperscaler capex and AI networking demand. The company's launch of DS6000/DS6001 Ethernet switches and exposure to a $21 billion data-center cooling market support its platform transition and long-term growth despite customer concentration risks.

1. Bullish Rating Upgrade Ahead of Q4 CY25

Investment analysts have raised Celestica’s outlook from neutral to bullish in advance of its Q4 CY25 earnings report, citing sustained strength in AI networking demand and record hyperscaler capital expenditures. Management has delivered four consecutive quarters of raised guidance, with bookings in high-bandwidth Ethernet switches up 45% year-over-year. The upgrade reflects growing confidence that Celestica’s transition from a traditional electronics manufacturing services (EMS) provider to a strategic technology platform partner is now firmly entrenched.

2. Robust Revenue Growth Forecasts for CY25 and CY26

Celestica is projected to achieve 27% revenue growth in calendar year 2025 and accelerate to 31% in CY26, driven by ramping deployments of its DS6000 and DS6001 switch families. These platforms address a total addressable market estimated at $21 billion in data center cooling and networking hardware. Management’s guidance calls for operating margin expansion of 150 basis points over the next two years, underpinned by higher-margin systems integration work and leaner supply-chain operations.

3. Addressing Server Assembly Speculation with Key Client

Recent market chatter suggested that Google Cloud may shift a portion of its TPU server assembly business away from Celestica, triggering a short-term share price decline. Company leadership has publicly reaffirmed that all existing hyperscale programs remain fully contracted through CY27 and highlighted a 98% client retention rate over the past three years. Investors are watching for explicit confirmation in the Q4 earnings call that Celestica’s strategic partnerships with top cloud providers—including multi-year commitments for AI compute platforms—are secure and on track.

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