Centene reaffirms $1.98 earnings guidance as ACA membership drops mid-30s%
Centene reaffirmed 2026 GAAP earnings guidance above $1.98 per share and adjusted EPS above $3.00 and reported membership fell to 27.63 million in Q4 from 28.60 million a year earlier. Management warned ACA plan attrition could hit mid-30s percent due to pricing actions and ACA mix shifts.
1. Earnings Guidance Reaffirmed
Centene confirmed its full-year 2026 GAAP EPS guidance above $1.98 and adjusted EPS guidance above $3.00, maintaining its financial targets despite market pressure.
2. ACA Plan Membership Decline
At its recent healthcare conference presentation, Centene flagged ACA membership attrition could range from the high teens to mid-30s percent, contributing to a total membership drop from 28.60 million to 27.63 million in Q4 year-over-year.
3. Higher Utilization in Silver Tier
Early data showed elevated specialty pharmacy utilization concentrated in the Silver metal tier without risk adjustment offsets, reflecting a shift in cost patterns among remaining ACA plan members.
4. Stock Price Reaction
Centene shares plunged over 13% on Tuesday following the membership outlook, extending a one-year decline of around 35% as investors weighed margin-focused pricing actions against shrinking plan enrollment.