Chevron CEO: $60 Spot-Futures Gap Signals Possible $250 Oil from Iran Disruption
At CERAWeek, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth noted physical crude prices in Dubai and Oman at $160, creating a $60 spread over futures Brent around $100. He warned futures markets undervalue the Iran Strait of Hormuz supply shock, forecasting crude could surge to $200-$250 a barrel if disruptions persist.
1. CERAWeek Remarks on Physical Versus Futures Prices
At the CERAWeek conference, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth highlighted a significant divergence between physical and paper markets, with Murban crude trading around $160 a barrel in Dubai and Oman versus Brent futures near $100. He emphasized that this $60 spread reflects tight supply fundamentals not yet reflected in futures curves.
2. Iran Strait of Hormuz Supply Shock
Wirth described ongoing threats from Iran in the Strait of Hormuz as a low-cost tactic to sustain price volatility, warning that persistent disruptions could drive crude to unprecedented levels. He speculated that if the threats continue another month, oil could reach $200-$250 per barrel, translating into record‐high consumer fuel prices.
3. Goldman’s Revised Price Targets
In response to heightened supply risks, Goldman raised its 2026 average Brent forecast to $85 from $77 and lifted its WTI outlook to $79 from $72. These revisions underscore expectations of sustained tightness in global oil markets driven by geopolitical tensions.