Analysts at UBS project that CMG's fourth-quarter comparable restaurant sales will slow to mid-single-digit growth, driven by continued industrywide traffic pressure and softer consumer spending. UBS expects earnings per share to contract from last year’s fourth quarter, reflecting a roughly 50 basis-point headwind from mix and discounting as CMG leaned on limited-time offers to stimulate visits. The consensus forecast calls for diluted EPS to come in below the year-ago level, marking the first quarterly earnings decline for the chain since 2020.

Chipotle is accelerating its 2026 limited-time protein program, reintroducing Chicken al Pastor on February 10 across all U.S., Canada and European markets. This marks the first of three to four protein launches planned for the year. Internal data show that guests who purchase an LTO item increase visit frequency by 8 percent over the following 12 months. A ’Fan Day’ on February 9 gave rewards members early access, driving digital order volume and reinforcing CMG’s mix shift toward higher-margin digital channels, which represented 52 percent of sales in Q3.

Food and labor inflation remain elevated, with commodity costs up approximately 10 percent year-over-year and wage inflation adding another 6 to 7 percent cost increase in the period. While digital mix and LTO pricing support average check growth, analysts forecast that restaurant-level margins will contract by about 100 basis points in Q4 versus the prior year. CMG is leveraging supply-chain efficiencies and smaller test batches of new proteins to help offset input cost pressures, but overall margins are expected to remain under pressure until late 2026.

Looking ahead, UBS and other street analysts anticipate sequential improvement in trends, with comps accelerating into the first quarter driven by new menu roll-outs. CMG plans to open roughly 195 new restaurants in 2026, maintaining a development pace that supports high-single-digit unit growth. Management has reiterated a full-year comparable sales target in the 5 to 7 percent range, underpinned by continued LTO cadence, expanding digital capabilities and international market expansion.