CIBC Strategist Predicts 15% S&P Upside After 6% Pullback
The S&P 500 has declined almost 6% since the Iran war began, pushing its forward P/E to 19.5 and volatility measures above decade averages. CIBC Capital Markets forecasts a 15% year-end upside and recommends phased purchases of mega-cap tech names, echoed by peers at JPMorgan and Truist.
1. Market Conditions
The war in Iran has driven oil prices higher and eroded sentiment, causing the S&P 500 to lose nearly 6% and log a fifth straight weekly drop. The VIX climbed above 27 and Nasdaq 100 volatility expectations hovered near 30 while the index trades at 19.5 times projected earnings.
2. CIBC Capital Markets View
Christopher Harvey, head of equity and portfolio strategy at CIBC Capital Markets, notes the S&P 500 sits almost 1,000 points below his 7,450 year-end target, implying roughly 15% upside if hostilities ease. He advises a slow, methodical entry into mega-cap technology names such as Alphabet, Apple, Nvidia and Palantir.
3. Other Strategists Positioning
JPMorgan’s trading desk shifted to a neutral stance, building a “shopping list” focused on energy and mega-cap tech stocks. At Truist Advisory Services, clients are urged to use pullbacks to accumulate large-cap names while retaining cash to capitalize on any deeper market flush.