Circle Q4 Revenue Rises 77% to $770M, Analysts Forecast Up to 93% Upside
Circle reported Q4 revenue of $770 million, up 77% year-over-year, and achieved $167 million in adjusted EBITDA with 54% margins. Analysts cut price targets to $160 and $130 while raising 2026 EBITDA forecasts to $618 million, citing USDC circulation doubling to $76.2 billion and paradigm-shifting market potential.
1. Analysts Lower Targets but Maintain Bullish Case
Two firms cut Circle's price targets to $160 (from $247) and $130 (from $190) but raised their 2026 EBITDA forecasts to $618 million and cited multiple compression rather than fundamental deterioration, implying up to 93% upside.
2. Strong Q4 Financial Performance
In Q4, Circle posted revenue of $770 million, a 77% year-over-year increase, and achieved $167 million in adjusted EBITDA with 54% margins, reflecting high operational leverage on growing transaction volumes.
3. Surging Stablecoin Adoption and Competitive Moat
USDC circulation doubled to $76.2 billion in Q4, on-chain transaction volume hit $12 trillion (up 247% year-over-year) and stablecoin market share rose to 50%, while financial institution participation in Circle's network nearly doubled.
4. AI Blockchain Integration and Future Growth
The Arc blockchain mainnet is set for a 2026 launch with built-in AI agent integration, and the Circle Gateway will enable cross-chain USDC transactions at $0.00001 each, positioning Circle for autonomous B2B payments growth.