Citi Lifts Intel PT to $130 and AMD PT to $460 on $131.5B CPU TAM Forecast
Citi foresees server CPU TAM growing 35% from $29.3 billion in 2025 to $131.5 billion by 2030, with agentic CPU segment surging 185% CAGR to $59.4 billion. The firm lifted Intel’s price target to $130 and AMD’s to $460, projecting Intel at 47% and AMD at 34% market share by 2030.
1. Citi's CPU TAM Forecast
Citi’s model projects server CPU total addressable market expanding from $29.3 billion in 2025 to $131.5 billion by 2030, representing 35% growth. This outlook incorporates surging demand for agentic AI applications driving overall market expansion.
2. Segment Growth Details
The forecast divides the CPU market into three segments: general-purpose CPUs projected to reach $50.9 billion at a 20% CAGR, AI head nodes to $21.1 billion at a 21% CAGR, and agentic CPU applications to $59.4 billion at a 185% CAGR. The agentic segment is expected to account for 45% of the market by 2030.
3. Price Target Increases
Citi raised Intel’s price target to $130 and AMD’s to $460, updating data center sales estimates to reflect the new TAM model. Analysts highlighted potential upside from Intel’s Mount Evans IPU ASIC business and AMD’s MI450 AI accelerator win with Anthropic.
4. Market Share Projections and Implications
By 2030, Intel is expected to capture 47% of the CPU market, AMD 34%, and ARM and others 19%. These projections underscore competitive positioning in AI-driven data centers, with AMD’s performance leadership and Intel’s ASIC initiatives influencing share dynamics.