Citi sees 0-3 month point price target of $4,500/oz for gold
GLD•Citi set a 0-3 month gold price target of $4,500 per ounce and a 6-12 month target of $5,000, while lowering its 2026 and 2027 average price forecasts to $4,460 and $4,700 per ounce. It outlined a 30% probability bear case at $3,500 and a 10% probability bull case.
1. Gold price outlook
Citi sees substantial upside potential for gold if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the Yemen/Saudi conflict de-escalates by year-end, as it expects. The bank also said sharply lower oil prices could prompt Federal Reserve rate cuts, making gold more attractive to investors.
2. Forecasts and scenarios
Citi cut its full-year 2026 and 2027 average gold price forecasts to $4,460 and $4,700 per ounce, respectively, from $4,560 and $5,000. In its 30% probability bear case, gold could fall to $3,500 per ounce if Middle East disruptions keep energy prices elevated, inflation persists and the Fed maintains a tightening bias. Its 10% probability bull case assumes a rapid U.S.-Iran deal lowers oil prices, prompting rate cuts, a weaker dollar and a rally in physical and financial gold.
3. Demand and prices
Citi estimated annualised global spending on gold fell to about $820 billion in the third quarter from roughly $1.15 trillion in the first quarter, as bar and coin demand weakened; ETF inflows and central bank buying remained robust. Gold rose 3% on Wednesday, and spot prices were around $4,038.50 per ounce at 9:30 a.m. ET.
