Citi Surprise Index Posts 14-Month Upside Run, Eyes Post-Covid Record
Citi’s economic surprise index has stayed positive for 14 months since January 2025, the longest run since the 2008-09 crisis and set to exceed its post-Covid streak. Export and industrial output strength, AI investment and fiscal stimulus offset U.S. tariffs, while Iran war-driven oil price gains could damp growth ahead.
1. Extended Upside Run
Citi’s surprise index, which measures three-month economic data surprises versus forecasts, has remained positive for 14 straight months since January 2025, marking the longest run since the 2008-09 financial crisis. It is set to overtake its post-Covid-19 streak and become the second longest on record behind the 2009-11 period.
2. Growth Drivers
Strong export and industrial production figures, massive AI investment and expansionary fiscal policies have driven the outperformance, offsetting the drag from elevated U.S. tariffs implemented in early 2025.
3. Risk from Oil Prices
The war in Iran has driven oil prices higher, a trend not yet reflected in the index; analysts warn that rising energy costs could fuel inflation and prompt central banks to raise interest rates, risking slower growth ahead.