Investment bank Citi has sharply increased its 12-month price target for Fresnillo PLC (FNLPF) to £46 per share from £38, while maintaining a Buy recommendation. Citi analysts highlighted that spot silver, which has been trading between $87 and $89 per ounce over the past two weeks, is driving a substantial upgrade to the group’s earnings forecasts. The bank now expects Fresnillo’s adjusted EBITDA to rise by 28% year-on-year to $1.2 billion in fiscal 2026, and forecasts free cash flow of $550 million, up from its prior estimate of $420 million. Citi noted that Fresnillo’s silver output of 58 million ounces in 2025 positions the company to capture the majority of upside should prices remain elevated.

US bank JPMorgan has retained Fresnillo PLC as one of its top sector picks following a 2% jump in gold prices and a 7% rally in silver at the start of the week. The bank pointed to renewed geopolitical tensions around Iran and heightened uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve’s next policy moves as key catalysts. JPMorgan’s base case model now assumes an average silver price of $85 per ounce in 2026, versus its prior forecast of $75, lifting revenue estimates by £120 million. The bank forecasts a 15% increase in Fresnillo’s underlying earnings before interest and tax, driven by higher metal realizations and a modest 3% cut in operating costs through ongoing efficiency programmes.