Clear Street Cuts MARA Holdings Price Target 44% to $9 After Slashing 2027 EBITDA Forecast to $99M
Clear Street analyst cuts MARA Holdings’ price target 44% to $9, trimming its 2027 EBITDA estimate from $571M to $99M. He values mining at $2 per share using an 8x multiple and allocates $7 per share to the HPC segment as energy costs rise and mining rewards fall.
1. Price Target Reduction
Clear Street managing director Brian Dobson lowered MARA Holdings’ price target from $16 to $9 and maintained a Hold rating, reflecting diminished confidence in the company’s near-term valuation and growth prospects.
2. EBITDA Forecast Revision
Dobson slashed the company’s 2027 EBITDA forecast from $571 million to $99 million, citing weaker mining margins and higher operating costs that fundamentally alter projected cash-flow generation.
3. Valuation Breakdown
The analyst applies an 8x multiple to the reduced 2027 EBITDA estimate, valuing MARA’s Bitcoin mining operations at approximately $2 per share and assigning $7 per share to its high-performance computing partnership.
4. Strategic and Market Context
Rising energy costs, increased mining difficulty and reduced block rewards have eroded mining profitability and accelerated MARA’s pivot toward AI and HPC services; the company also signaled openness to selling Bitcoin reserves for liquidity, driving an 8% one-day stock decline.