CME Group FedWatch Shows 100% Rate Hold, Crypto Markets Shed $40B
CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability of holding rates at 3.50%–3.75% at the FOMC meeting on April 29, aligning with a $40 billion crypto market sell-off as Bitcoin slips below $76 000 and total market cap drops to $2.62 trillion. Pre-FOMC derisking saw 10 000 BTC inflows and reduced leveraged positions.
1. FedWatch Tool Forecast
CME Group's FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates at 3.50%–3.75% at the FOMC meeting on April 29, reflecting headline inflation near 3.3%–3.5% and geopolitical oil pressures from the Middle East.
2. Crypto Market Sell-Off
Bitcoin dropped below $76,000 while total crypto market capitalization declined 1.8% to $2.62 trillion, shedding nearly $40 billion in 24 hours as Ether fell almost 2%, XRP lost 2.2%, and BNB slipped 0.7%.
3. Pre-FOMC Derisking Signals
The sell-off coincided with a reduction in leveraged perpetual positions and an increase in exchange inflows, including 10 000 BTC deposited in a single day with whale accounts accounting for over 70% of deposits.
4. Volatility and Trading Outlook
With Jerome Powell's final press conference as Fed Chair set to follow the rate announcement, 10-year Treasury yields approached 4.33%–4.36%, and traders anticipate a spike in volatility that could boost volume across CME’s interest rate and crypto derivatives markets.