CME Group’s FedWatch Tool Doubles December Hike Odds to 40%
CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows the probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December has more than doubled to roughly 40%. U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.54%, its highest level since May 2025, while equity futures on Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow E-minis tumbled over 0.5%.
1. FedWatch Tool Signals Higher Rate-Hike Odds
CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates the odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December have more than doubled to roughly 40%, reflecting growing inflation concerns.
2. Treasury Yields Surge to Multi-Year High
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes climbed to 4.54%, its highest level since May 2025, as investors priced in faster monetary tightening driven by global risk factors.
3. Futures Market Volatility Rises
Equity futures on Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow E-minis fell by up to 1.25%, signaling increased market volatility and hedging activity on CME’s trading platforms.
4. Opportunity for Data and Trading Revenue
Elevated rate-hike probability and heightened volatility are likely to boost demand for CME’s interest-rate futures, options and data services, potentially driving higher transaction and information sales.