Commercial Metals Company will report first-quarter results before markets open on January 8, 2025. Analysts tracked by FactSet have raised their consensus earnings forecast by 8% over the past two weeks, with the average estimate now at $1.12 per share. This upward revision reflects stronger-than-expected shipments from the company’s recycling operations and stable margins in its fabricated products division. Commercial Metals processed 850,000 tons of scrap in the quarter, a 5% increase year-over-year, while average steel coil spreads held near historical averages of $260 per ton, supporting net income growth projections of approximately 15% sequentially.

A recent 14% quarter-over-quarter rebound in domestic steel bar and coil prices has improved Commercial Metals’s revenue outlook, particularly in construction and automotive end markets. Building permits for single-family homes rose 7% in November, and light vehicle production is running at its highest annualized pace since 2019, driving sharper demand for rebar and structural shapes. Commercial Metals’s forward sales backlog climbed to 420,000 tons as of December 31, up 18% from the prior quarter, indicating strong order flow and pricing leverage heading into spring construction season.

Commercial Metals has exhibited positive technical trends that appeal to momentum-focused investors. The stock’s 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day average in December, a classic ‘golden cross’ pattern, while trading volume on up days has averaged 1.3 million shares, 25% higher than the 30-day norm. Year-to-date total return stands at 11.5%, outpacing the broader steel producers group by over 400 basis points. With short interest at 3.8% of float—near its lowest level in two years—the risk of a large squeeze appears limited, supporting further upside if the company delivers on its bullish earnings and demand outlook.