Q4 Revenue Tops Estimates Yet EPS Miss as Production Climbs to 2.32 MMBOED
ConocoPhillips posted Q4 2025 revenue of $14.19 billion versus a $13.9 billion estimate, but adjusted EPS of $1.02 missed the $1.08 consensus. Production rose to 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent while reiterating a $12 billion 2026 capex plan and targeting 2.33–2.36 MMBOED with 45% operating cash flow return.
1. Q4 Earnings Miss and Revenue Performance
ConocoPhillips reported fourth-quarter revenues of $14.2 billion, exceeding consensus estimates of $13.9 billion; however, adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.02, falling short of the $1.08 forecast and representing a 48% decline from $1.98 in the year-ago quarter. The earnings shortfall was driven primarily by a 19% drop in average realized oil-equivalent prices to $42.46 per barrel, which more than offset higher production volumes.
2. Production Metrics and 2026 Guidance
Total production averaged 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED) in Q4, up 137 thousand BOED year-over-year; on an organic basis, excluding acquisitions and divestitures, output declined by 63 thousand BOED (2.6%). For 2026, the company forecasts full-year production of 2.33–2.36 MMBOED and first-quarter volumes of 2.30–2.34 MMBOED, incorporating expected weather-related downtime.
3. Capital Allocation and Free Cash Flow Targets
ConocoPhillips plans to invest approximately $12 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 and maintain adjusted operating costs near $10.2 billion. The company will return roughly 45% of operating cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, and aims to generate $7 billion of incremental free cash flow by 2029, including $1 billion annually from 2026 to 2028.