ConocoPhillips shares rallied sharply this week, climbing more than 6% intraday before settling around a 3.2% gain, as investors reacted to the removal of Venezuela’s president. Traders are positioning the company to reenter a country where it once held major upstream assets, interpreting the regime change as a clear catalyst for renewed access to over 300 billion barrels of oil equivalent in proven reserves—currently the world’s largest single national resource.

ConocoPhillips stands to recover roughly $10 billion awarded by international tribunals after Caracas seized its assets in 2007. While only a fraction of that sum has been paid out to date, the recent political developments have heightened expectations that overdue compensation will accelerate. Legal filings indicate Venezuela still owes the company several billion dollars, and a cooperative government transition could unlock those payments as well as open the door to renegotiating exploration and production contracts on favorable terms.

Reentering Venezuela’s oil fields will require massive capital infusions—industry estimates range from $65 billion to $100 billion over the next decade—to restore dilapidated wells, upgrade aging pipelines and refineries, and address chronic underinvestment that has driven the country’s output down to just 1% of global supply. ConocoPhillips faces both the financial burden of these projects and the political risk of operating in a market long plagued by regulatory volatility. Successful reentry hinges on securing long-term guarantees from a new Venezuelan administration and aligning with U.S. government subsidy or credit programs to mitigate upfront costs.