Copper rises on China supply concerns
XLB•Copper rose as supply concerns persisted in China, where premiums hit records and monitored stocks fell to 33,848 tons. Citi cut its zero-to-three-month price forecast to $13,300 a ton from $14,500, citing weakening AI sentiment and tariff uncertainty as risks.
1. Prices and inventories
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.81% to $13,880 a metric ton, while the most-traded Shanghai Futures Exchange contract gained 0.68% to 107,650 yuan by 0330 GMT. China’s Yangshan copper premium reached $215 a ton and its domestic premium hit 2,615 yuan. Shanghai exchange-monitored stocks fell to 33,848 tons last week, their lowest level since early January 2024.
2. Demand and forecast risks
Everbright Futures analysts said copper was likely to remain weak and rangebound, while tight inventories and high physical premiums in China could limit losses. Citi analysts said shortages of scrap and other raw materials had brought Chinese inventories close to multi-year lows, creating potential for restocking if investor selling pushed prices lower. They also said weakening AI sentiment and lower expectations for US refined copper tariffs could pressure prices, and cut their zero-to-three-month forecast to $13,300 a ton from $14,500.
