Rio Tinto’s proposed $200 billion merger with Glencore is facing fresh headwinds as structural supply constraints and extreme price swings reshape the copper market. Glencore reported a 11% drop in copper output to 851,600 tons in 2025, driven by lower ore grades and operational challenges at the Collahuasi mine. Its 2026 guidance of 810,000–870,000 tons falls well short of the previous 930,000-ton forecast, raising doubts about the merged entity’s near-term production growth. At the same time, record-high copper prices—fueled by a weaker U.S. dollar and surging demand from technology and defense sectors—have led to heightened volatility, prompting some trading desks to reduce exposure and narrowing market liquidity. Investors warn that without clear production upside, soaring metal prices may not be enough to justify the deal’s strategic rationale or deliver the scale benefits envisaged by Rio Tinto shareholders.

Rio Tinto has signed a multi-year agreement to supply Amazon with up to 40,000 tons of certified low-carbon copper annually, targeting data center projects critical to the company’s AI and cloud infrastructure. The copper will be sourced primarily from Rio’s Gudai-Darri operation in Western Australia, where new ore sorting and renewable-energy electrification initiatives have cut scope-1 and scope-2 emissions by an estimated 35% compared with conventional mining processes. This deal supports Amazon’s goal of net-zero carbon across its operations by 2040 and positions Rio Tinto as a leader in sustainable copper production, with the partnership expected to unlock further investment in decarbonization technologies across both companies’ supply chains.