CoStar sees U.S. office vacancy steady through 2026, then easing gradually
CSGP•U.S. office vacancy outlook
CoStar forecast U.S. office vacancy to hold near current levels through 2026, then begin a gradual decline.
- National office vacancy dipped below 14% in Q2 2026, about 30 basis points under the mid-2025 peak.
- Net absorption forecast was cut to 13 million square feet in 2026, down from 17 million; 2027 was cut to 5 million from 6 million.
- U.S. office inventory fell 7 million square feet over the past year on low deliveries and rising demolitions, while the pipeline is near 50 million square feet.
- Downside risks were tied to productivity gains in knowledge work, including AI adoption; upside risk was seen from higher space per worker despite flat hiring.
