WTI oil futures climbed by 1.8% at the start of the week, as widespread protests in Iran disrupted local production centers. According to ARA Energy Analytics, exports from the Strait of Hormuz region were down by 250,000 barrels per day on Monday compared with the previous week. Traders cited a sudden drop in tanker loadings from Kharg Island terminals and heightened naval patrols as drivers of the price lift. Open interest in WTI contracts rose by 4% over two trading sessions, reflecting renewed speculative interest in geopolitical risk premiums.

Chart patterns for WTI showed a decisive break above the 100-day moving average at 68.40, confirming an upside breakout that began in late October. Volume on the breakout day was 30% above the 20-session average, according to data from ClearCycle Charts. Short-term momentum indicators such as the 14-period RSI hit 62, up from 54 last Friday, suggesting further room for gains before entering overbought territory. Market participants are eyeing a key resistance zone between 70.00 and 71.20, which would mark a six-week high if breached.

Despite recent strength, analysts at Global Fuel Insights warn of a potential 600,000 barrels-per-day surplus in the WTI complex during the second half of 2026. U.S. shale production is forecast to rise by 200,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, while OPEC+ spare capacity is set to exceed 3 million barrels per day by mid-year. Storage levels in Cushing, Oklahoma climbed to 68% of capacity, up from 62% in August, raising concerns of logistical bottlenecks. Futures curves remain in backwardation, but the spread between prompt and third-month contracts has narrowed to $2.10, signaling market anticipation of softening spot demand.