Dealmakers will ride US election blue wave
XLF•Democrats’ midterm gains in both chambers could encourage companies to accelerate mergers and acquisitions ahead of a possible return to tougher antitrust enforcement. US merger activity rose 32% to $1.8 trillion in the year after the last time a party lost both chambers while holding the presidency, while announced US deals under Trump reached $4.3 trillion through September 2026.
1. Election shifts deal calculus
Democrats retaking control of the House and Senate is expected to fuel expectations that they could reclaim the White House in 2028, raising the prospect of tougher antitrust enforcement. The article argues that the political outlook could prompt CEOs to speed up M&A activity.
2. Recent approvals and activity
Under Trump, the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission concluded 16 significant merger investigations last year, among the lowest tallies since 2011, with more quick settlements and fewer abandoned transactions, according to law firm Dechert. Reddy Ice and Columbus McKinnon secured deal approvals after agreeing to divest businesses, while Deere and Live Nation signed antitrust settlements. US merger activity surged 32% to $1.8 trillion in the year after the last comparable congressional shift, LSEG data showed.
3. Factors tempering the outlook
Announced US transactions under Trump totaled $4.3 trillion through September 2026, up 65% from the previous seven quarters. The article also cites China blocking SoftBank’s planned $5.4 billion purchase of ABB’s robotics division, declining CEO confidence, squeezed consumers and weakening business pricing power as factors affecting dealmaking.
