Deere Q1 Revenue Forecast of $7.54B and $2.03 EPS Faces $1.2B Tariff Hit
Analysts project Deere's Q1 revenue at $7.54 billion and EPS at $2.03, down from $8.51 billion and $3.19 last year, marking the 16th quarter to beat revenue estimates and 14th for EPS. Deere forecasts $1.2 billion in tariff costs for fiscal 2026 and plans a $70 million U.S. factory plus an Indiana distribution center.
1. Q1 Earnings Projections
Analysts expect Deere's first-quarter revenue to total $7.54 billion, down from $8.51 billion last year, and EPS to decline to $2.03 from $3.19, reflecting industry headwinds. The company has beaten revenue estimates for more than 15 consecutive quarters and EPS forecasts for 13 straight quarters, underscoring consistent execution.
2. Tariff Impact and Cost Guidance
Deere projects direct tariff expenses of $1.2 billion in fiscal 2026, up from an estimated $600 million in fiscal 2025, and anticipates a 5.5% to 20% year-over-year net income decline due to tariffs and broader inflationary pressure. CEO John May flagged these costs as an ongoing headwind to margins.
3. US Manufacturing Expansion
The company confirmed plans for a new $70 million excavator plant in North Carolina, plus a distribution center in Indiana, aiming to bolster domestic production and strengthen relations with policymakers focused on onshoring supply chains. These investments target streamlined logistics and closer proximity to key U.S. markets.
4. Recent Segment Performance and Outlook
In its fiscal fourth quarter, construction and forestry equipment sales rose 27% year-over-year, while production and precision agriculture sales climbed 10%. Deere’s leadership suggested fiscal 2026 could mark a sector bottom, setting cautious investor expectations ahead of the Q1 report.