Delta Air Lines cuts profit outlook as fuel costs outpace fare gains
DAL•Delta cut its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $5.10-$5.60 per share from $6.50-$7.50, as its annual fuel bill is expected to rise by about $6 billion. The company expects its refinery to generate $700 million in profit this year.
1. Forecast cut
Delta lowered its annual adjusted earnings forecast to $5.10-$5.60 per share, putting the midpoint nearly a quarter below its previous outlook. Third-quarter fuel expense rose 62% year over year to $4.1 billion, while adjusted earnings of $1.72 per share narrowly missed analysts’ average estimate of $1.76.
2. Fare and demand outlook
Delta said strong demand continues, with almost 60% of the fourth quarter already booked, and forecast fourth-quarter revenue growth of about 20% year over year. It expects fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.15-$1.65 per share. U.S. airline fares rose about 25% year over year in the five months through August, as carriers passed on some higher fuel costs.
3. Refinery cushion
Delta expects its Philadelphia-area refinery to generate $700 million in profit this year, providing a partial offset to higher fuel costs. Even with that benefit, Delta expects fuel costs to rise to $4.25 per gallon in the fourth quarter from $3.61 in the third.
