Democratic surge predicted to hit Republican states hardest, scrambling Senate strategy
SPY•Polls show Democrats competitive in 10 states Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024, expanding the party’s potential path to a Senate majority. Republicans are spending millions more than Democrats on future ads in five battleground states, while Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats to win the chamber.
1. Expanded Senate map
Polling shows Democrats competitive in 10 states Trump carried by double digits in 2024: Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, Florida, Kansas, Nebraska, Mississippi, South Carolina and Kentucky. Democrats must defend two seats in Trump-won states and flip four Republican-held seats, including at least two in states he won by double digits, to take the Senate.
2. Races and resources
Recent polls show Democrat Adam Hamilton narrowly leading Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas, while Florida Democrat Angie Nixon and South Carolina Democrat Annie Andrews are running neck and neck against Republican incumbents. Democrats in Nebraska, Mississippi and Kentucky are trailing by single digits. In Kentucky, Charles Booker’s internal polling places him within single digits of Andy Barr, but Barr has a $2 million cash advantage.
3. Ad spending
Republicans have reserved tens of millions of dollars more than Democrats for future ads in Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas, ad-tracking firm AdImpact says. The article notes that polls do not necessarily predict election outcomes and that many expansion races are still rated solidly Republican or likely Republican.
