About $10 billion of Bitcoin options, equal to roughly 37% of open interest on Deribit, will expire Friday, with the majority of bullish calls now out of the money. Thin quarter-end liquidity could cause Bitcoin to overshoot current levels near $60,000 before mean-reverting.
About $10 billion of notional value in Bitcoin options, representing approximately 37% of Deribit’s total open interest, is set to expire on Friday. The bulk of call options are now out of the money against spot prices near $60,000, while puts cluster at strike levels between $60,000 and $75,000. With the put-to-call ratio at 0.83 and quarter-end liquidity thin, market makers may see amplified directional moves before volatility mean-reverts.
MicroStrategy, as one of the largest public corporate Bitcoin holders, will see its net asset value and share price move in line with any sharp price swings driven by expiry-related flows. Heightened volatility from dealer hedging could create short-term trading opportunities but may also amplify downside risk before prices stabilize.
