Dollar little changed as oil prices bounce, payrolls eyed
TLT•The dollar index was roughly unchanged at 101.49 as oil prices rebounded more than 3% and investors awaited Friday’s US payrolls report. Markets priced a 66.1% chance of a Fed rate increase of at least 25 basis points in December.
1. Dollar and oil
The dollar index ticked up 0.02% to 101.49 on Thursday, while crude prices rose more than 3% after falling sharply in the prior session. US stocks fell as concerns about AI-related spending and possible regulation weighed on technology shares.
2. US labor data
Weekly initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 189,000, matching a 57-year low and below economists’ 196,000 estimate. US worker productivity grew faster than expected in the third quarter, depressing labor costs. Investors awaited Friday’s government payrolls report.
3. Rate expectations
Markets priced in a 66.1% chance of a Fed rate increase of at least 25 basis points in December, down from 79.9% a week earlier. Sterling slipped after the Bank of England raised rates, while the yen strengthened after minutes from the Bank of Japan’s September meeting reinforced expectations for further rate hikes.
