Eli Lilly expects fourth-quarter revenues to reflect robust demand for its GLP-1 therapies Mounjaro and Zepbound, which together accounted for over 57% of company growth in the most recent quarter. Management has reported that manufacturing output increased by 35% year-over-year, easing prior supply constraints in North America and Europe. At the same time, rapid uptake in key emerging markets—where Zepbound prescriptions rose 120% sequentially—helped offset a mid-single-digit pricing decline in established markets. Analysts project these dynamics could drive total Q4 revenue growth of approximately 50%, with GLP-1 sales contributing more than $12 billion to the period’s top line.

In phase 3 trials of retatrutide—the company’s next-generation triple-hormone candidate—patients receiving a 12 mg dose achieved an average body-weight reduction of 28.7% at week 68. Notably, more than 12% of participants with concurrent knee osteoarthritis reported complete resolution of joint pain by the study’s end. This pain-relief signal could support label expansion into musculoskeletal indications and bolster payer coverage. Given that an estimated 20% of the obesity population also suffers from osteoarthritis, analysts estimate a potential incremental annual market opportunity of $2 billion if retatrutide secures an approval for pain relief in addition to weight management.

The FDA has extended its review timeline for orforglipron, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 candidate, from the original Q4 target into the second quarter of next year. The agency requested additional data on gastrointestinal tolerability and long-term safety markers, delaying a decision by roughly two months. While this adjustment may postpone incremental revenue contribution by an estimated $500 million in 2026, regulatory experts view the additional scrutiny as enhancing the likelihood of a broader label upon approval, potentially including both diabetes and obesity indications.