Eli Lilly Eyes €9.5B Abivax Buy to Secure 47.3% Remission UC Drug
Eli Lilly is reportedly pursuing a €9.5 billion takeover of France-based Abivax to gain obefazimod, a phase 3 ulcerative colitis therapy that achieved 47.3% remission. This acquisition would broaden Lilly’s immunology pipeline with a novel mechanism and expand its footprint in the ulcerative colitis market.
1. Ascent Group LLC Increases Eli Lilly Position
In its latest 13F filing, Ascent Group LLC reported a 3.3% increase in its Eli Lilly and Company stake during the third quarter. The fund purchased an additional 575 shares, bringing its total holdings to 17,821 shares valued at approximately $13.6 million. This modest uptick underscores continued institutional confidence in Eli Lilly’s growth trajectory despite recent market volatility.
2. Broad Institutional Activity Highlights Confidence
Several leading asset managers adjusted their Eli Lilly stakes in the second and third quarters. Vanguard Group added over 1.18 million shares to reach a total holding exceeding 80.4 million shares, representing a $62.7 billion investment. Laurel Wealth Advisors made a dramatic entry, acquiring 11.5 million shares for a $9.0 billion position. Norges Bank initiated a new stake valued at $8.8 billion, while Jennison Associates and AllianceBernstein each boosted their positions by more than 4% and 7.9%, respectively. Collectively, hedge funds and institutional investors now own over 82% of the company’s outstanding shares.
3. Third-Quarter Earnings and 2025 Guidance Exceed Estimates
In its October earnings release, Eli Lilly reported third-quarter EPS of $7.02, beating the consensus by $0.60, and revenue of $17.6 billion, surpassing forecasts by $1.5 billion and marking a 53.9% year-over-year increase. The company’s net margin of 30.99% and return on equity of 109.52% reflect the strong profitability of its expanding pharmaceutical portfolio. Management set full-year 2025 EPS guidance at a range of 23.00 to 23.70, compared with consensus expectations of 23.48, driven by robust performance across its diabetes and oncology divisions.
4. Dividend Hike and Analyst Outlook Support Buy Rating
On the dividend front, Eli Lilly declared a quarterly payout of $1.73 per share, up from $1.50, translating to an annualized yield near 0.6% and a payout ratio of 29.35%. The ex-dividend date is February 13, with payment on March 10. Wall Street sentiment remains constructive: four analysts maintain a Strong Buy rating, seventeen rate it Buy, and consensus target prices have been revised higher in recent weeks by firms including Wells Fargo, BMO Capital Markets, and Truist Financial, reflecting optimism around sustained pipeline advancements and market share gains.