Emerging Asia's power-driven LNG demand at risk as renewables gain ground
UNG•Emerging Asian countries are delaying or scaling back gas-fired power projects as geopolitical shocks, equipment shortages and cheaper renewables reshape energy plans. Wood Mackenzie estimates that 14.9 GW of Southeast Asia's planned 53 GW of gas-fired projects will come online by 2030, while Rystad Energy cut its Asia LNG demand forecasts by 3% for 2040 and 7% for 2045.
1. Projects face delays
Geopolitical shocks, high prices and a global gas turbine shortage have stalled or delayed LNG-related projects in emerging Asia. Wood Mackenzie estimates that only 14.9 GW of Southeast Asia's planned 53 GW of gas-fired power projects will come online by 2030; Vietnam accounts for 25.7 GW of projects unlikely to start by then.
2. Renewables gain ground
Falling renewable generation costs are prompting governments to accelerate clean energy deployment and reduce dependence on imported fuel. The International Energy Agency forecast that wind and solar will contribute 11% of Southeast Asia's energy mix by 2030, up from 5% in 2025. Gas-fired power has lost share to renewables in Southeast Asia, while output has declined in Bangladesh, Pakistan and India over the past five years.
3. Demand outlook revised
Wood Mackenzie still expects Southeast Asian LNG consumption to rise to 39 million metric tons in 2028 from 27 million in 2025. Rystad Energy cut its long-term Asia LNG demand forecasts by 3% for 2040 and 7% for 2045, citing insufficient supply deals and infrastructure in countries including Vietnam and the Philippines, as well as China's renewable energy buildout.
