Energy Leaders Flag $60/Barrel Spread, Warn Crude Could Hit $200-$250
At CERAWeek 2026, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned that physical crude prices in the Persian Gulf have reached $160/barrel—$60 above futures—and said this $60 spread indicates futures markets are underpricing current supply shocks. S&P Global Energy president Dave Ernsberger predicted that if Iranian Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist, crude could climb to $200-$250 per barrel within a month, potentially driving record-high gasoline prices globally.
1. Chevron CEO Highlights Physical-Futures Price Disconnect
At CERAWeek, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth pointed out that Murban crude is trading around $160/barrel on physical markets, roughly $60 above futures, signaling a disconnect between spot supply tightness and futures pricing.
2. Fundamentals Tight amid Strait of Hormuz Threats
Wirth noted that recent threats by Iran to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz have kept real-time supply under pressure, as shipping firms steer clear of the waterway despite it remaining open, sustaining a premium on benchmark physical prices.
3. $200-$250 Crude Forecast if Disruptions Persist
Dave Ernsberger, president of S&P Global Energy, warned that a continuation of current disruptions for another month could push crude prices to $200-$250 per barrel, a surge that would translate into unprecedented gasoline costs in major markets.