Entering the home stretch
SPY•Bond markets face month-end and quarter-end rebalancing, with September U.S. payrolls due Friday and forecasts for 84,000 jobs added. Oil rose above $108 per barrel as markets also watched Fed speakers and the prospect of another rate hike.
1. Jobs and Fed focus
September payrolls are forecast to rise by 84,000, down from August’s 162,000 gain but above estimates of the pace needed to keep unemployment at 4.1%. Futures markets priced in about a two-thirds chance of another Fed rate rise next month, and policymakers who have spoken since this month’s decision have indicated more tightening is likely to be needed.
2. Oil and trade
Crude prices climbed above $108 per barrel early Monday after President Trump rejected Iranian proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt regional fighting. The U.S.-China summit produced limited tariff relief on selected goods, while an extension of the wider trade truce runs only through January; Chinese industrial profits fell in August.
