EFX•Equifax’s October analysis outlined a possible 2.6% rise in real holiday spending, with outcomes ranging from a 2.4% decline to a 4.1% increase. Small-business real sales fell 1.6%, while broader retail real sales rose 2.6%.
Equifax’s October 2026 analysis outlined a possible 2.6% increase in real holiday spending, with outcomes ranging from -2.4% to 4.1%. Small-business real sales fell 1.6% and transactions declined 2%, while broader retail real sales rose 2.6% and transactions increased 2.8%.
The Small Business Index declined for 11 consecutive months, underscoring pressure on holiday inventory and pricing decisions. Higher-income households remain better positioned to spend, while elevated essential costs squeeze lower-income consumers’ holiday budgets.
