Since the start of the Iran conflict, Exxon Mobil has underperformed key energy sector benchmarks, ranking among the bottom performers relative to refiners, LNG exporters and North American upstream producers. Its stock decline reflects a shift in investor focus toward companies with higher refining margins and uncontracted LNG capacity, leaving integrated majors with broader risk profiles trailing the rally.

Investors have flagged Exxon’s exposure to Middle East supply disruptions, particularly potential bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz and temporary demanning of Persian Gulf offshore rigs. Concerns over delayed infrastructure projects and reassessed capital spending in the region have compounded pressure on share performance, as markets recalibrate supply risk premiums amid geopolitical volatility.