Exxon Mobil Underperforms with 2% Drop as Middle East Output Trapped, CCS Expansion Gains
Exxon Mobil's shares have fallen about 2% since the Iran war as Middle East output is trapped at the Strait of Hormuz, underperforming peers like BP, whose shares rose 20%. Analysts flag a 37–38% undervaluation ahead of Q1 results, citing Permian growth from Pioneer assets and CCS-enabled data center expansion.
1. Middle East Supply Constraints
Since the Iran war began, output from Exxon's Middle East operations and its Qatar LNG stakes has been unable to transit the Strait of Hormuz, tightening supply and contributing to a roughly 2% share price decline.
2. Underperformance Against Supermajors
Despite a 45% surge in crude futures since late February, Exxon Mobil's stock has lagged all major supermajors with a 2% drop, while BP shares have climbed about 20% over the same period.
3. Q1 Valuation and Asset Integration
Analysts argue Exxon remains undervalued by 37–38% ahead of first-quarter results, highlighting robust Permian production growth from the Pioneer acquisition and strategic investments in CCS-enabled data centers and advanced materials.