FactSet sees S&P 500 utilities Q3 2026 earnings growth at 7%
XLU•FactSet expects S&P 500 utilities earnings to grow 7% year over year in Q3 2026, down from its June 30 estimate of 8.8%. Independent power and renewables are forecast to lead growth at 14%, while gas utilities are projected at 12%.
1. Utilities earnings outlook
FactSet expects S&P 500 utilities earnings to rise 7% year over year in Q3 2026, down from an 8.8% estimate on June 30. Analysts forecast double-digit earnings growth in two of the next four quarters, including 15.6% in Q4 2026; independent power and renewables are projected to grow 14%, and gas utilities 12%.
2. Power demand drivers
FactSet analysis found average U.S. Lower 48 power load reached a September record of 541 GW, up 8.7% year over year, with heat contributing to the increase. The analysis identified AI-related data-center demand as a key structural load driver and noted Texas had paused new approvals pending an audit of its interconnection queue.
